Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 50% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2591 Southwest	LIH 20:24	LAS 05:09	9%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 19:54 → HNL 20:43AS 1174	2h 37m Honolulu	HNL 23:20 → LAS 08:03 +1AS 808	9h 09m	100%	80%
Alaska Details →	LIH 06:00 → HNL 06:36AS 1004	1h 19m Honolulu	HNL 07:55 → LAS 16:39AS 806	7h 39m	97%	71%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:04 → HNL 09:42AS 1034	3h 43m Honolulu	HNL 13:25 → LAS 22:10AS 876	10h 06m	99%	66%
United Details →	LIH 12:42 → SFO 21:10UA 1112	1h 22m San Francisco	SFO 22:32 → LAS 00:09 +1UA 2400	8h 27m	94%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LIH 11:46 → HNL 12:35AS 1074	50m Honolulu	HNL 13:25 → LAS 22:10AS 876	7h 24m	50%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON