Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 435 at 20:31 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 435 LIH 20:31 → LAX 05:00 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AS 964 LIH 14:16 → LAX 22:45 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 435 Delta Flight history →	LIH 20:31	LAX 05:00	15%	5%	0.7%	92%
UA 1296 United Flight history →	LIH 13:01	LAX 21:40	16%	5%	0.6%	91%
AA 266 American Flight history →	LIH 13:19	LAX 22:00	27%	6%	0.6%	84%worse than usual
AS 964 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 14:16	LAX 22:45	30%	7%	0.8%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	LIH 09:53 → OGG 10:57AS 1150	1h 21m Kahului	OGG 12:18 → LAX 20:20AS 981	7h 27m	96%	70%
Alaska Details →	LIH 17:47 → HNL 18:36AS 1144	2h 03m Honolulu	HNL 20:39 → LAX 05:00 +1AS 804	8h 13m	95%	70%
Alaska Details →	LIH 06:00 → HNL 06:36AS 1004	1h 24m Honolulu	HNL 08:00 → LAX 16:20AS 810	7h 20m	97%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON