Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 09:53, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Oakland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4574 Southwest	LIH 12:10	OAK 20:40	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
AS 968 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 12:40	OAK 20:50	18%	5%	0.8%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 09:53 → OGG 10:57AS 1150	1h 19m Kahului	OGG 12:16 → OAK 20:18AS 924	7h 25m	95%	78%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	3h 42m Honolulu	HNL 12:41 → OAK 20:44AS 848	9h 22m	100%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LIH 10:59 → HNL 11:48AS 1064	53m Honolulu	HNL 12:41 → OAK 20:44AS 848	6h 45m	61%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON