Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 901 Alaska	LIH 12:21	PDX 21:06	20%	7%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 16:58 → HNL 17:47AS 1134	3h 57m Honolulu	HNL 21:44 → PDX 06:10 +1AS 879	10h 12m	100%	79%
Alaska Details →	LIH 06:00 → HNL 06:36AS 1004	1h 02m Honolulu	HNL 07:38 → PDX 16:10AS 860	7h 10m	93%	76%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	3h 23m Honolulu	HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50AS 814	9h 28m	100%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON