Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 19:19, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1646 Alaska	LIH 10:41	SAN 19:10	24%	6%	1.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 17:47 → HNL 18:36AS 1144	3h 23m Honolulu	HNL 21:59 → SAN 06:27 +1AS 93	9h 40m	99%	72%
United Details →	LIH 12:42 → SFO 21:10UA 1112	1h 39m San Francisco	SFO 22:49 → SAN 00:41 +1UA 1389	8h 59m	97%	68%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:53 → OGG 10:57AS 1150	1h 25m Kahului	OGG 12:22 → SAN 20:43AS 203	7h 50m	96%	67%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	3h 40m Honolulu	HNL 12:39 → SAN 21:07AS 816	9h 45m	100%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LIH 10:59 → HNL 11:48AS 1064	51m Honolulu	HNL 12:39 → SAN 21:07AS 816	7h 08m	55%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON