Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 375 at 21:55 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 375 LIH 21:55 → SEA 06:40 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 234 LIH 12:31 → SEA 21:21 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 375 Delta Flight history →	LIH 21:55	SEA 06:40	13%	5%	1.0%	89%
AS 213 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 22:28	SEA 07:12	22%	7%	0.8%	82%
AS 234 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 12:31	SEA 21:21	33%	10%	0.8%	79%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	2h 24m Honolulu	HNL 11:23 → SEA 19:54AS 267	8h 32m	100%	70%
Alaska Details →	LIH 19:19 → HNL 20:08AS 1164	1h 24m Honolulu	HNL 21:32 → SEA 06:06 +1AS 854	7h 47m	89%	68%
Alaska Details →	LIH 11:46 → HNL 12:35AS 1074	1h 59m Honolulu	HNL 14:34 → SEA 23:04AS 627	8h 18m	97%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON