Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 19:54, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 19:54 → HNL 20:43AS 1174	3h 03m Honolulu	HNL 23:46 → SJC 07:55 +1AS 9677	9h 01m	100%	79%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:53 → OGG 10:57AS 1150	2h 25m Kahului	OGG 13:22 → SJC 21:30AS 954	8h 37m	99%	75%
Alaska Details →	LIH 07:12 → HNL 07:48AS 1014	3h 54m Honolulu	HNL 11:42 → SJC 20:00AS 839	9h 48m	100%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON