Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1565 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 1565 LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 3025 LIT 17:46 → ATL 20:23 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1565 Delta Flight history →	LIT 05:25	ATL 07:59	7%	3%	0.7%	94%
DL 1396 Delta Flight history →	LIT 06:47	ATL 09:25	7%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 3040 Delta Flight history →	LIT 11:41	ATL 14:18	10%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 3027 Delta Flight history →	LIT 14:58	ATL 17:37	12%	4%	0.8%	84%
DL 3025 Delta Flight history →	LIT 17:46	ATL 20:23	18%	6%	2.2%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON