Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4158 at 07:08 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 4158 LIT 07:08 → CLT 10:17 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest MQ 3506 LIT 15:04 → CLT 18:06 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4158 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 07:08	CLT 10:17	10%	4%	0.8%	94%
MQ 4169 Envoy	LIT 08:21	CLT 11:28	12%	5%	1.0%	no record
OO 4949 SkyWest	LIT 10:10	CLT 13:18	17%	8%	1.0%	no record
MQ 3506 Envoy	LIT 15:04	CLT 18:06	22%	5%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON