Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 3630 at 06:00, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3630 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 06:00	DCA 09:29	7%	3%	0.8%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:52DL 1798	6h 27m	98%	84%
American Details →	LIT 05:39 → DFW 07:09AA 4049 · flown by Envoy	1h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:50 → DCA 12:52AA 1177	6h 13m	96%	81%
American Details →	LIT 06:31 → ORD 08:42AA 3656 · flown by Envoy	1h 55m Chicago	ORD 10:37 → DCA 13:48AA 1200	6h 17m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	LIT 06:47 → ATL 09:25DL 1396	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	7h 09m	99%	79%
United Details →	LIT 11:51 → IAH 13:42UA 4830 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 00m Houston	IAH 16:42 → DCA 20:57UA 235	8h 06m	97%	78%
American Details →	LIT 07:22 → DFW 08:54AA 3589 · flown by Envoy	3h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414	7h 37m	97%	76%
United Details →	LIT 08:37 → ORD 10:44UA 4528 · flown by GoJet	3h 16m Chicago	ORD 14:00 → DCA 17:12UA 1314	7h 35m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	LIT 11:41 → ATL 14:18DL 3040	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 17:55 → DCA 19:48DL 832	7h 07m	98%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	LIT 11:08 → ORD 13:07UA 4410 · flown by GoJet	53m Chicago	ORD 14:00 → DCA 17:12UA 1314	5h 04m	71%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON