Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4049 at 05:39 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 4049 LIT 05:39 → DFW 07:09 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest MQ 3520 LIT 17:38 → DFW 19:07 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4049 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 05:39	DFW 07:09	10%	5%	1.1%	86%
AA 3641 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 09:08	DFW 10:37	14%	6%	1.0%	79%
OH 5599 PSA	LIT 11:45	DFW 13:14	15%	10%	2.2%	no record
AA 3898 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 13:35	DFW 14:55	17%	7%	1.0%	68%
AA 3589 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 07:22	DFW 08:54	18%	6%	1.0%	77%
MQ 3505 Envoy	LIT 18:51	DFW 20:25	21%	8%	1.8%	no record
OH 5615 PSA	LIT 16:08	DFW 17:42	22%	13%	2.8%	no record
MQ 3520 Envoy	LIT 17:38	DFW 19:07	24%	8%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON