Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 12–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 4830 LIT 11:51 → IAH 13:42 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest G7 4380 LIT 16:00 → IAH 17:32 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4830 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	LIT 11:51	IAH 13:42	12%	5%	0.9%	84%
G7 4619 GoJet	LIT 09:08	IAH 10:52	14%	4%	0.9%	no record
G7 4186 GoJet	LIT 07:00	IAH 08:59	14%	5%	0.9%	no record
OO 5450 SkyWest	LIT 17:23	IAH 19:22	15%	6%	0.6%	no record
G7 4380 GoJet	LIT 16:00	IAH 17:32	18%	5%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON