Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via DFW, leaving 07:22, is the safest bet: 44% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 682 Southwest	LIT 09:56	LAS 11:29	7%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	7h 35m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	LIT 06:47 → ATL 09:25DL 1396	1h 35m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:05DL 466	7h 18m	94%	75%
American Details →	LIT 08:26 → PHX 09:47AA 4323 · flown by Envoy	1h 19m Phoenix	PHX 11:06 → LAS 12:30AA 457	6h 04m	94%	73%
Delta Details →	LIT 17:49 → SLC 20:05DL 4052 · flown by SkyWest	1h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:30 → LAS 21:58DL 1662	6h 09m	93%	72%
Delta Details →	LIT 14:58 → ATL 17:37DL 3027	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 21:20 → LAS 22:35DL 825	9h 37m	99%	71%
American Details →	LIT 05:39 → DFW 07:09AA 4049 · flown by Envoy	1h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:52 → LAS 09:50AA 1550	6h 11m	96%	70%
Delta Details →	LIT 11:41 → ATL 14:18DL 3040	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 15:55 → LAS 17:05DL 711	7h 24m	93%	69%
United Details →	LIT 13:35 → DEN 15:04UA 4686 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Denver	DEN 16:04 → LAS 17:11UA 2424	5h 36m	87%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LIT 07:22 → DFW 08:54AA 3589 · flown by Envoy	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:40 → LAS 10:38AA 1494	5h 16m	67%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON