tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:47, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LIT 06:47 → ATL 09:25DL 1396 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525 7h 03m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 6h 17m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → LIT 14:58 → ATL 17:37DL 3027 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 7h 26m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → LIT 11:41 → ATL 14:18DL 3040 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 17:00 → LGA 19:27DL 997 6h 46m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → LIT 07:08 → CLT 10:17AA 4158 · flown by Envoy 1h 35m Charlotte CLT 11:52 → LGA 13:43AA 2268 5h 35m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → LIT 13:35 → DEN 15:04UA 4686 · flown by SkyWest 2h 16m Denver DEN 17:20 → LGA 23:13UA 2033 8h 38m 96% 78%
AmericanDetails → LIT 05:39 → DFW 07:09AA 4049 · flown by Envoy 1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:27 → LGA 13:10AA 1056 6h 31m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → LIT 07:05 → IAH 08:47UA 4301 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 13m Houston IAH 12:00 → LGA 16:44UA 2181 8h 39m 97% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON