Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via DFW, leaving 09:08, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4323 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 08:26	PHX 09:47	11%	4%	0.7%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 11:20 → PHX 12:16DL 796	8h 51m	99%	82%
United Details →	LIT 09:28 → IAH 11:15UA 4066 · flown by Mesa	3h 00m Houston	IAH 14:15 → PHX 15:04UA 1798	7h 36m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	LIT 17:49 → SLC 20:05DL 4052 · flown by SkyWest	1h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:30 → PHX 22:11DL 1496	6h 22m	96%	81%
American Details →	LIT 05:39 → DFW 07:09AA 4049 · flown by Envoy	3h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:26 → PHX 11:03AA 2905	7h 24m	100%	80%
United Details →	LIT 07:05 → IAH 08:47UA 4301 · flown by CommuteAir	53m Houston	IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895	5h 29m	93%	80%
American Details →	LIT 07:08 → CLT 10:17AA 4158 · flown by Envoy	1h 20m Charlotte	CLT 11:37 → PHX 12:56AA 588	7h 48m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	LIT 11:41 → ATL 14:18DL 3040	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → PHX 17:39DL 836	7h 58m	97%	78%
United Details →	LIT 12:00 → IAH 13:37UA 4830 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 15m Houston	IAH 16:52 → PHX 17:51UA 1478	7h 51m	97%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	LIT 11:13 → ORD 13:15UA 4410 · flown by GoJet	51m Chicago	ORD 14:06 → PHX 15:49UA 1706	6h 36m	61%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON