tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 4052 at 17:49, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 4052 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → LIT 17:49 SLC 20:05 9% 5% 0.6% 95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LIT 16:39 → DEN 18:25UA 5429 · flown by SkyWest 2h 40m Denver DEN 21:05 → SLC 22:44UA 5646 · flown by SkyWest 7h 05m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 7h 45m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → LIT 06:47 → ATL 09:25DL 1396 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663 8h 03m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → LIT 11:41 → ATL 14:18DL 3040 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 17:55 → SLC 19:56DL 653 9h 15m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → LIT 05:39 → DFW 07:09AA 4049 · flown by Envoy 1h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:52 → SLC 10:50AA 1878 6h 11m 96% 71%
DeltaDetails → LIT 14:58 → ATL 17:37DL 3027 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 19:34 → SLC 21:37DL 660 7h 39m 94% 70%
DeltaDetails → LIT 17:46 → ATL 20:23DL 3025 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 22:25 → SLC 00:26 +1DL 453 7h 40m 92% 69%
UnitedDetails → LIT 08:37 → ORD 10:44UA 4528 · flown by GoJet 2h 01m Chicago ORD 12:45 → SLC 15:22UA 1955 7h 45m 94% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LIT 16:39 → DEN 18:25UA 5429 · flown by SkyWest 58m Denver DEN 19:23 → SLC 20:56UA 2769 5h 17m 74% 54%
AmericanDetails → LIT 09:08 → DFW 10:37AA 3641 · flown by Envoy 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:24 → SLC 13:14AA 1871 5h 06m 72% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON