Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Bush, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MAF 05:00 → IAH 06:37UA 6351 · flown by Mesa	1h 07m Houston	IAH 07:44 → AUS 08:53UA 2376	3h 53m	94%	85%
American Details →	MAF 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 4075 · flown by Envoy	2h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:46 → AUS 09:54AA 794	4h 54m	100%	78%
United Details →	MAF 09:37 → IAH 11:15UA 6260 · flown by Mesa	3h 05m Houston	IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:29UA 6118 · flown by Mesa	5h 52m	98%	77%
United Details →	MAF 07:28 → DEN 08:44UA 5794 · flown by SkyWest	58m Denver	DEN 09:42 → AUS 13:02UA 1026	5h 34m	89%	77%
United Details →	MAF 17:13 → IAH 18:55UA 4001 · flown by Mesa	2h 51m Houston	IAH 21:46 → AUS 22:44UA 1179	5h 31m	95%	72%
American Details →	MAF 07:05 → DFW 08:38AA 6381 · flown by SkyWest	2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:51 → AUS 12:02AA 1070	4h 57m	95%	71%
American Details →	MAF 08:04 → DFW 09:28AA 3352 · flown by Envoy	2h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:03 → AUS 13:22AA 3054	5h 18m	98%	70%
American Details →	MAF 10:28 → DFW 11:51AA 3643 · flown by Envoy	2h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:38 → AUS 15:50AA 2103	5h 22m	99%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MAF 18:25 → DFW 19:59AA 6199 · flown by SkyWest	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:51 → AUS 22:04AA 576	3h 39m	69%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON