Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4075 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 4075 MAF 05:00 → DFW 06:20 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 6199 MAF 18:25 → DFW 19:59 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4075 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MAF 05:00	DFW 06:20	6%	4%	1.6%	91%
MQ 3698 Envoy	MAF 06:04	DFW 07:31	8%	5%	1.6%	no record
AA 6381 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MAF 07:05	DFW 08:38	10%	7%	1.4%	90%
AA 3643 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MAF 10:28	DFW 11:51	12%	5%	1.7%	90%
AA 3352 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MAF 08:04	DFW 09:28	13%	5%	1.6%	88%
MQ 3511 Envoy	MAF 11:54	DFW 13:14	14%	6%	1.9%	no record
MQ 3512 Envoy	MAF 14:27	DFW 15:51	18%	7%	2.4%	no record
AA 3653 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MAF 17:27	DFW 18:54	22%	10%	4.2%	63%
AA 6199 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MAF 18:25	DFW 19:59	23%	12%	4.0%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON