tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 2330 at 12:17, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2330 Southwest MAF 12:17 LAS 12:27 13% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Midland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MAF 09:37 → IAH 11:15UA 6260 · flown by Mesa 3h 05m Houston IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971 8h 00m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → MAF 07:28 → DEN 08:44UA 5794 · flown by SkyWest 2h 38m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 6h 56m 93% 77%
AmericanDetails → MAF 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 4075 · flown by Envoy 2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:52 → LAS 09:50AA 1550 6h 50m 100% 73%
AmericanDetails → MAF 09:20 → PHX 09:23AA 4939 · flown by SkyWest 1h 43m Phoenix PHX 11:06 → LAS 12:30AA 457 5h 10m 88% 70%
UnitedDetails → MAF 13:45 → DEN 14:47UA 4807 · flown by SkyWest 1h 17m Denver DEN 16:04 → LAS 17:11UA 2424 5h 26m 90% 69%
AmericanDetails → MAF 08:04 → DFW 09:28AA 3352 · flown by Envoy 2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:18 → LAS 13:06AA 777 7h 02m 98% 62%
AmericanDetails → MAF 07:05 → DFW 08:38AA 6381 · flown by SkyWest 2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → LAS 11:39AA 1482 6h 34m 92% 62%
UnitedDetails → MAF 17:13 → IAH 18:55UA 4001 · flown by Mesa 1h 10m Houston IAH 20:05 → LAS 21:23UA 1360 6h 10m 84% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON