Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 4939 at 09:20, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4939 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MAF 09:20	PHX 09:23	17%	8%	0.9%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Midland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MAF 09:31 → IAH 11:23UA 6260 · flown by Mesa	2h 52m Houston	IAH 14:15 → PHX 15:04UA 1798	7h 33m	98%	78%
United Details →	MAF 07:28 → DEN 08:44UA 5794 · flown by SkyWest	2h 41m Denver	DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686	6h 57m	93%	78%
United Details →	MAF 11:41 → IAH 13:16UA 4011 · flown by Mesa	3h 36m Houston	IAH 16:52 → PHX 17:51UA 1478	8h 10m	99%	77%
American Details →	MAF 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 4075 · flown by Envoy	2h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:55 → PHX 09:29AA 520	6h 29m	100%	76%
American Details →	MAF 08:04 → DFW 09:28AA 3352 · flown by Envoy	2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:34 → PHX 12:00AA 359	5h 56m	98%	73%
American Details →	MAF 07:05 → DFW 08:38AA 6381 · flown by SkyWest	1h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:26 → PHX 11:03AA 2905	5h 58m	92%	72%
United Details →	MAF 13:45 → DEN 14:47UA 4807 · flown by SkyWest	48m Denver	DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254	4h 50m	82%	68%
American Details →	MAF 10:28 → DFW 11:51AA 3643 · flown by Envoy	1h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:40 → PHX 14:18AA 1548	5h 50m	93%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON