Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 5–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1204 MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 1660 MCI 17:34 → ATL 20:48 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1204 Delta Flight history →	MCI 05:39	ATL 08:43	5%	2%	0.6%	94%
WN 4515 Southwest	MCI 09:27	ATL 12:33	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1212 Delta Flight history →	MCI 07:00	ATL 10:03	6%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 3110 Delta Flight history →	MCI 08:00	ATL 11:01	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2908 Delta Flight history →	MCI 11:20	ATL 14:24	8%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 2747 Delta Flight history →	MCI 13:17	ATL 16:25	9%	2%	0.7%	85%
DL 1660 Delta Flight history →	MCI 17:34	ATL 20:48	15%	5%	1.2%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON