Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3572 MCI 10:37 → BOS 14:54 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 389 MCI 19:52 → BOS 00:04 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3572 Southwest	MCI 10:37	BOS 14:54	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 675 Delta Flight history →	MCI 12:45	BOS 16:58	16%	4%	0.7%	86%
AS 389 Alaska	MCI 19:52	BOS 00:04	19%	8%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON