Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1297 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 1297 MCI 06:31 → CLT 10:00 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1619 MCI 14:53 → CLT 18:13 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1297 American Flight history →	MCI 06:31	CLT 10:00	8%	3%	0.8%	93%
AA 1003 American Flight history →	MCI 07:44	CLT 11:07	11%	3%	1.0%	66%
AA 1616 American Flight history →	MCI 10:58	CLT 14:18	12%	4%	0.8%	84%
AA 1619 American Flight history →	MCI 14:53	CLT 18:13	20%	7%	1.2%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON