tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2619 Southwest MCI 08:27 DCA 11:59 6% 2% 0.6% no record
OH 5644 PSA MCI 07:01 DCA 10:54 7% 4% 1.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 2h 31m Minneapolis MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983 6h 25m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613 2h 50m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:58DL 2961 6h 54m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:00 → LGA 09:50DL 370 1h 50m New York LGA 11:40 → DCA 13:05DL 5749 · flown by Republic 6h 05m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:52DL 1798 6h 13m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 2h 34m Denver DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789 7h 59m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:41DL 2897 1h 48m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820 8h 30m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:16 → IAH 08:25UA 740 3h 30m Houston IAH 11:55 → DCA 16:03UA 654 8h 47m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → MCI 13:05 → LGA 17:01DL 572 2h 09m New York LGA 19:10 → DCA 21:01DL 5724 · flown by Republic 6h 56m 96% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCI 17:23 → DFW 19:14AA 3030 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077 5h 36m 60% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON