Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 314 at 07:07 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 314 MCI 07:07 → DEN 08:08 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1737 MCI 17:20 → DEN 18:28 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 314 Southwest	MCI 07:07	DEN 08:08	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 355 United Flight history →	MCI 06:00	DEN 06:56	5%	2%	0.6%	97%
WN 2622 Southwest	MCI 10:28	DEN 11:14	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2623 Southwest	MCI 12:37	DEN 13:38	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 708 United Flight history →	MCI 13:40	DEN 14:35	11%	4%	0.6%	88%
UA 1384 United Flight history →	MCI 08:56	DEN 10:07	12%	3%	0.6%	66%
WN 2147 Southwest	MCI 15:27	DEN 16:28	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 130 Southwest	MCI 17:37	DEN 18:53	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
F9 4827 Frontier	MCI 20:25	DEN 21:25	20%	7%	1.0%	no record
UA 1737 United	MCI 17:20	DEN 18:28	21%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON