Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1098 at 05:31 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 1098 MCI 05:31 → DFW 07:23 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 3030 MCI 17:23 → DFW 19:14 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1098 American Flight history →	MCI 05:31	DFW 07:23	9%	4%	1.2%	89%
AA 1261 American Flight history →	MCI 06:43	DFW 08:39	10%	4%	1.4%	87%
AA 1582 American	MCI 08:01	DFW 09:54	13%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 2430 American	MCI 09:48	DFW 11:32	17%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 3331 American Flight history →	MCI 11:30	DFW 13:15	20%	8%	1.2%	64%
AA 1376 American Flight history →	MCI 13:02	DFW 14:46	23%	9%	1.2%	74%
AA 1315 American	MCI 14:26	DFW 16:13	25%	11%	1.6%	no record
AA 3030 American Flight history →	MCI 17:23	DFW 19:14	32%	17%	3.2%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON