Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4508 at 06:37, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4508 Southwest	MCI 06:37	ECP 09:01	4%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → ECP 12:40DL 2823	7h 01m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	MCI 13:17 → ATL 16:25DL 2747	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 18:58 → ECP 19:12DL 3053	5h 55m	99%	84%
United Details →	MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355	3h 26m Denver	DEN 10:22 → ECP 14:36UA 477	8h 36m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	MCI 11:20 → ATL 14:24DL 2908	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 15:55 → ECP 16:06DL 3094	4h 46m	97%	80%
American Details →	MCI 06:31 → CLT 10:00AA 1297	2h 07m Charlotte	CLT 12:07 → ECP 13:00AA 5262 · flown by PSA	6h 29m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	MCI 17:34 → ATL 20:48DL 1660	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 22:51 → ECP 22:58DL 3131	5h 24m	96%	78%
American Details →	MCI 05:31 → DFW 07:23AA 1098	2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:02 → ECP 12:13AA 3625 · flown by Envoy	6h 42m	98%	78%
United Details →	MCI 14:56 → IAH 17:13UA 6124 · flown by Mesa	2h 48m Houston	IAH 20:01 → ECP 21:58UA 4343 · flown by CommuteAir	7h 02m	98%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON