tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 1813 at 06:06, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1813 United MCI 06:06 EWR 10:01 9% 3% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 5h 42m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613 2h 35m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846 6h 52m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256 52m Detroit DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577 4h 31m 94% 83%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 3h 07m Denver DEN 10:03 → EWR 15:59UA 2381 8h 59m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312 6h 16m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → MCI 14:56 → IAH 17:13UA 6124 · flown by Mesa 2h 42m Houston IAH 19:55 → EWR 00:37 +1UA 1444 8h 41m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → MCI 07:53 → ORD 09:45UA 1491 2h 26m Chicago ORD 12:11 → EWR 15:39UA 606 6h 46m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:16 → IAH 08:25UA 740 1h 23m Houston IAH 09:48 → EWR 14:27UA 2402 7h 11m 97% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MCI 18:41 → ORD 20:33UA 303 57m Chicago ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209 5h 12m 69% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON