Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4798 Southwest	MCI 05:29	HOU 07:41	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1661 Southwest	MCI 11:47	HOU 13:57	9%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MCI 05:31 → DFW 07:23AA 1098	1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:02 → HOU 10:31AA 9754	5h 00m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	MCI 11:20 → ATL 14:24DL 2908	48m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	5h 02m	88%	70%
American Details →	MCI 13:02 → DFW 14:46AA 1376	3h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:37 → HOU 19:58AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	6h 56m	97%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON