tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1572 United MCI 11:44 IAD 15:26 10% 3% 0.6% no record
YX 3546 Republic MCI 17:43 IAD 21:37 10% 4% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAD 14:26DL 2135 7h 47m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613 2h 10m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest 6h 16m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 2h 03m Minneapolis MSP 09:57 → IAD 13:33DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest 6h 10m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 1h 04m Denver DEN 08:00 → IAD 13:26UA 1101 6h 26m 95% 88%
UnitedDetails → MCI 08:56 → DEN 10:07UA 1384 2h 19m Denver DEN 12:26 → IAD 17:58UA 2853 8h 02m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256 59m Detroit DTW 10:22 → IAD 11:47DL 3082 4h 22m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → MCI 07:53 → ORD 09:45UA 1491 3h 20m Chicago ORD 13:05 → IAD 16:07UA 1128 7h 14m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → MCI 10:32 → DTW 13:30DL 2826 1h 17m Detroit DTW 14:47 → IAD 16:22DL 1787 4h 50m 96% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON