Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 2165 at 08:27, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2165 Southwest	MCI 08:27	IND 11:04	5%	1%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635	1h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 08:57 → IND 11:38DL 2456	4h 15m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013	5h 57m	100%	86%
United Details →	MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355	3h 02m Denver	DEN 09:58 → IND 14:35UA 1522	7h 35m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613	2h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 20:00 → IND 22:37DL 674	5h 33m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	MCI 11:20 → ATL 14:24DL 2908	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 16:50 → IND 18:27DL 2979	6h 07m	99%	83%
American Details →	MCI 06:00 → PHL 09:45AA 946	1h 00m Philadelphia	PHL 10:45 → IND 13:08AA 5240 · flown by PSA	6h 08m	92%	83%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → IND 15:19DL 3134	7h 19m	99%	83%
American Details →	MCI 16:05 → ORD 17:47AA 3939 · flown by Envoy	2h 59m Chicago	ORD 20:46 → IND 22:58AA 4740 · flown by Republic	5h 53m	100%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON