Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 5262 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MCI 12:17	JFK 16:31	17%	8%	1.4%	86%
9E 5553 Endeavor	MCI 12:16	JFK 16:01	19%	8%	1.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	6h 41m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256	51m Detroit	DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751	4h 33m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613	2h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 20:21 → JFK 23:52DL 2692	6h 48m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	MCI 10:32 → DTW 13:30DL 2826	2h 48m Detroit	DTW 16:18 → JFK 18:29DL 2934	6h 57m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	MCI 13:17 → ATL 16:25DL 2747	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2378	7h 12m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:41DL 2897	1h 18m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	8h 42m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	MCI 11:20 → ATL 14:24DL 2908	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 17:36 → JFK 20:03DL 2398	7h 43m	99%	77%
American Details →	MCI 06:31 → CLT 10:00AA 1297	1h 38m Charlotte	CLT 11:38 → JFK 13:31AA 374	6h 00m	97%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MCI 07:59 → PHX 09:09AA 2645	47m Phoenix	PHX 09:56 → JFK 18:01AA 2339	9h 02m	72%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON