Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3683 at 05:21 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 3683 MCI 05:21 → LAS 06:20 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2156 MCI 17:12 → LAS 18:29 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3683 Southwest	MCI 05:21	LAS 06:20	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 5119 Southwest	MCI 07:27	LAS 08:44	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4083 Southwest	MCI 09:49	LAS 10:48	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 4505 Frontier Flight history →	MCI 00:46	LAS 02:02	15%	7%	1.1%	75%
WN 2631 Southwest	MCI 14:42	LAS 15:59	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 3814 United	MCI 13:32	LAS 14:24	16%	6%	1.0%	no record
WN 2156 Southwest	MCI 17:12	LAS 18:29	21%	10%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON