Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 370 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 370 MCI 06:00 → LGA 09:50 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 572 MCI 13:05 → LGA 17:01 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 370 Delta Flight history →	MCI 06:00	LGA 09:50	5%	2%	1.4%	89%
WN 2636 Southwest	MCI 12:07	LGA 16:03	15%	4%	1.1%	no record
DL 572 Delta Flight history →	MCI 13:05	LGA 17:01	16%	5%	1.2%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON