Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 892 American Flight history →	MCI 05:02	MIA 09:20	14%	3%	1.8%	91%
YX 4693 Republic	MCI 16:33	MIA 21:05	21%	7%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635	1h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 09:01 → MIA 13:40DL 793	6h 17m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	6h 28m	100%	77%
United Details →	MCI 06:16 → IAH 08:25UA 740	3h 35m Houston	IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410	8h 31m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613	1h 02m Minneapolis	MSP 18:42 → MIA 23:26DL 2187	6h 22m	89%	74%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:00 → LGA 09:50DL 370	1h 25m New York	LGA 11:15 → MIA 14:24DL 1538	7h 24m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	MCI 13:05 → LGA 17:01DL 572	1h 58m New York	LGA 18:59 → MIA 22:36DL 1620	8h 31m	96%	74%
United Details →	MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355	2h 56m Denver	DEN 09:52 → MIA 16:00UA 1418	9h 00m	97%	74%
American Details →	MCI 06:00 → PHL 09:45AA 946	1h 47m Philadelphia	PHL 11:32 → MIA 14:29AA 1989	7h 29m	97%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MCI 17:23 → DFW 19:14AA 3030	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:03 → MIA 00:03 +1AA 2090	5h 40m	61%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON