Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1635 MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 1613 MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1635 Delta Flight history →	MCI 06:23	MSP 07:54	5%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1774 Delta	MCI 17:37	MSP 19:17	12%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 1613 Delta Flight history →	MCI 16:04	MSP 17:40	12%	5%	0.6%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON