tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 2184 at 14:57, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2184 Southwest MCI 14:57 MSY 17:00 11% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 5h 58m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:16 → IAH 08:25UA 740 3h 30m Houston IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385 6h 58m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157 7h 17m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → MCI 11:20 → ATL 14:24DL 2908 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 17:56 → MSY 18:34DL 678 7h 14m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → MCI 13:17 → ATL 16:25DL 2747 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 19:55 → MSY 20:29DL 1450 7h 12m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → MCI 06:31 → CLT 10:00AA 1297 2h 56m Charlotte CLT 12:56 → MSY 14:00AA 2030 7h 29m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → MCI 05:31 → DFW 07:23AA 1098 1h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:57 → MSY 10:36AA 1684 5h 05m 96% 74%
UnitedDetails → MCI 14:56 → IAH 17:13UA 6124 · flown by Mesa 2h 47m Houston IAH 20:00 → MSY 21:17UA 2161 6h 21m 98% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON