Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 4377 at 05:13 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–29%.

Safest bet that day YX 4377 MCI 05:13 → ORD 06:50 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2230 MCI 17:01 → ORD 18:44 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4377 Republic	MCI 05:13	ORD 06:50	7%	3%	0.9%	no record
OO 5680 SkyWest	MCI 06:06	ORD 07:54	8%	5%	1.1%	no record
UA 1491 United Flight history →	MCI 07:53	ORD 09:45	11%	3%	1.0%	86%
AA 6349 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 09:16	ORD 10:57	14%	6%	1.0%	80%
YX 3531 Republic	MCI 09:53	ORD 11:30	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 2437 United Flight history →	MCI 11:25	ORD 13:15	17%	7%	1.1%	82%
OO 6215 SkyWest	MCI 12:26	ORD 14:06	21%	10%	1.1%	no record
AA 3939 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MCI 16:05	ORD 17:47	22%	6%	1.6%	76%
MQ 3517 Envoy	MCI 14:19	ORD 15:56	24%	6%	2.0%	no record
OO 6304 SkyWest	MCI 19:28	ORD 21:11	25%	10%	2.1%	no record
UA 303 United Flight history →	MCI 18:41	ORD 20:33	27%	9%	1.0%	75%
UA 1369 United	MCI 15:19	ORD 16:51	28%	8%	1.4%	no record
UA 2230 United	MCI 17:01	ORD 18:44	29%	9%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON