tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 226 at 18:12, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 226 Alaska MCI 18:12 PDX 19:59 20% 5% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 2h 31m Minneapolis MSP 10:25 → PDX 12:21DL 2415 7h 58m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:41DL 2897 2h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 7h 05m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206 9h 19m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 1h 09m Denver DEN 08:05 → PDX 09:47UA 1247 5h 47m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → MCI 08:56 → DEN 10:07UA 1384 3h 22m Denver DEN 13:29 → PDX 15:15UA 8255 8h 19m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → MCI 11:20 → ATL 14:24DL 2908 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → PDX 18:49DL 503 9h 29m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:23 → LAX 08:54DL 2337 1h 06m Los Angeles LAX 10:00 → PDX 12:20DL 2766 6h 57m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → MCI 08:11 → SFO 10:09UA 2051 2h 30m San Francisco SFO 12:39 → PDX 14:34UA 2851 8h 23m 100% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON