Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 946 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 946 MCI 06:00 → PHL 09:45 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1480 MCI 12:50 → PHL 16:47 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 946 American Flight history →	MCI 06:00	PHL 09:45	8%	3%	0.8%	91%
AA 2947 American	MCI 07:49	PHL 11:46	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1480 American	MCI 12:50	PHL 16:47	22%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON