Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 966 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 966 MCI 06:02 → PHX 07:13 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2655 MCI 17:32 → PHX 18:43 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 966 Southwest	MCI 06:02	PHX 07:13	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2652 Southwest	MCI 07:40	PHX 08:27	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2016 Southwest	MCI 12:52	PHX 14:03	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2702 Southwest	MCI 14:47	PHX 16:03	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2645 American Flight history →	MCI 07:59	PHX 09:09	12%	4%	0.7%	92%
WN 2655 Southwest	MCI 17:32	PHX 18:43	17%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON