tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Pensacola on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 12:45 → PNS 12:55DL 1640 5h 55m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 10:34 → PNS 10:46DL 3198 5h 07m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → MCI 11:20 → ATL 14:24DL 2908 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 16:55 → PNS 17:10DL 2211 5h 50m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MCI 08:00 → ATL 11:01DL 3110 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 14:30 → PNS 14:41DL 1013 6h 41m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → MCI 08:56 → DEN 10:07UA 1384 1h 17m Denver DEN 11:24 → PNS 15:19UA 1891 6h 23m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → MCI 14:56 → IAH 17:13UA 6124 · flown by Mesa 3h 03m Houston IAH 20:16 → PNS 21:55UA 488 6h 59m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → MCI 05:31 → DFW 07:23AA 1098 1h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:13 → PNS 11:09AA 3982 · flown by Envoy 5h 38m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → MCI 07:53 → ORD 09:45UA 1491 1h 12m Chicago ORD 10:57 → PNS 13:19UA 2492 5h 26m 94% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON