tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 4648 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record MCI 18:55 RDU 22:26 25% 9% 3.4% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → RDU 11:38DL 2052 4h 59m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 2h 41m Minneapolis MSP 10:35 → RDU 14:09DL 2521 6h 46m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 08:00 → ATL 11:01DL 3110 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 14:28 → RDU 15:57DL 1550 6h 57m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 13:05 → RDU 14:30DL 2026 6h 30m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613 2h 45m Minneapolis MSP 20:25 → RDU 23:59DL 2932 6h 55m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 2h 53m Denver DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269 8h 16m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:00 → LGA 09:50DL 370 1h 34m New York LGA 11:24 → RDU 13:04DL 2015 6h 04m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:16 → IAH 08:25UA 740 3h 37m Houston IAH 12:02 → RDU 15:55UA 2196 8h 39m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCI 16:05 → ORD 17:47AA 3939 · flown by Envoy 55m Chicago ORD 18:42 → RDU 21:59AA 2167 4h 54m 70% 43%
AmericanDetails → MCI 17:23 → DFW 19:14AA 3030 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:04 → RDU 23:48AA 542 5h 25m 61% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON