Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via LAX, leaving 16:26, is the safest bet: 43% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2657 Southwest	MCI 15:32	SAN 17:16	23%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635	3h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → SAN 13:26DL 2125	9h 03m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:41DL 2897	2h 54m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SAN 12:35DL 1296	7h 30m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256	3h 09m Detroit	DTW 12:32 → SAN 14:15DL 761	9h 50m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540	9h 29m	100%	76%
United Details →	MCI 08:57 → DEN 10:09UA 1384	3h 21m Denver	DEN 13:30 → SAN 14:55UA 1302	7h 58m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	MCI 10:32 → DTW 13:30DL 2826	3h 28m Detroit	DTW 16:58 → SAN 18:42DL 369	10h 10m	99%	75%
United Details →	MCI 07:53 → ORD 09:45UA 1491	3h 56m Chicago	ORD 13:41 → SAN 15:59UA 559	10h 06m	100%	74%
United Details →	MCI 06:16 → IAH 08:25UA 740	1h 05m Houston	IAH 09:30 → SAN 10:51UA 2491	6h 35m	94%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MCI 16:26 → LAX 18:10UA 5489 · flown by SkyWest	52m Los Angeles	LAX 19:02 → SAN 19:55UA 1100	5h 29m	60%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON