Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2105 MCI 07:00 → SEA 08:57 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AS 418 MCI 14:17 → SEA 16:17 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2105 Delta Flight history →	MCI 07:00	SEA 08:57	9%	2%	0.9%	87%
AS 563 Alaska Flight history →	MCI 06:02	SEA 08:05	9%	2%	0.8%	90%
AS 418 Alaska Flight history →	MCI 14:17	SEA 16:17	16%	4%	0.7%	84%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCI 14:55 → SLC 16:32DL 2882	48m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871	5h 38m	84%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON