Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 13:40, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2051 United Flight history →	MCI 08:11	SFO 10:09	12%	5%	0.6%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635	3h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	8h 46m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256	2h 52m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → SFO 14:17DL 469	9h 52m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:41DL 2897	2h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → SFO 12:07DL 902	7h 02m	99%	77%
United Details →	MCI 08:56 → DEN 10:07UA 1384	3h 18m Denver	DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812	8h 13m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:23 → LAX 08:54DL 2337	3h 08m Los Angeles	LAX 12:02 → SFO 13:32DL 689	8h 09m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	57m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672	7h 54m	94%	74%
Delta Details →	MCI 10:32 → DTW 13:30DL 2826	2h 47m Detroit	DTW 16:17 → SFO 18:14DL 442	9h 42m	99%	73%
United Details →	MCI 14:56 → IAH 17:13UA 6124 · flown by Mesa	2h 27m Houston	IAH 19:40 → SFO 21:55UA 1202	8h 59m	98%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MCI 18:41 → ORD 20:33UA 303	1h 02m Chicago	ORD 21:35 → SFO 00:32 +1UA 2106	7h 51m	75%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON