tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 437 Southwest MCI 16:32 SMF 18:30 16% 6% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 2h 30m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 7h 46m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → MCI 16:26 → LAX 18:10UA 5489 · flown by SkyWest 3h 04m Los Angeles LAX 21:14 → SMF 22:48UA 5430 · flown by SkyWest 8h 22m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 1h 04m Denver DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:34UA 2149 5h 34m 95% 86%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:41DL 2897 2h 54m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 7h 11m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613 2h 21m Minneapolis MSP 20:01 → SMF 21:51DL 574 7h 47m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → MCI 08:56 → DEN 10:07UA 1384 1h 39m Denver DEN 11:46 → SMF 13:25UA 2673 6h 29m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → SEA 08:57DL 2105 1h 03m Seattle SEA 10:00 → SMF 12:07DL 4125 · flown by SkyWest 7h 07m 92% 79%
UnitedDetails → MCI 13:40 → DEN 14:35UA 708 1h 23m Denver DEN 15:58 → SMF 17:35UA 1208 5h 55m 96% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON