tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2660 Southwest MCI 06:32 STL 07:45 2% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 3955 Southwest MCI 14:52 STL 16:10 9% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613 2h 50m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → STL 22:03DL 1609 5h 59m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 14:07 → DTW 17:02DL 2741 2h 58m Detroit DTW 20:00 → STL 20:37DL 1541 6h 30m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 11:52 → STL 12:30DL 566 6h 51m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 13:49 → STL 14:27DL 2700 7h 27m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:41DL 2897 59m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455 6h 28m 95% 84%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 2h 39m Denver DEN 09:35 → STL 12:42UA 652 6h 42m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:16 → IAH 08:25UA 740 3h 31m Houston IAH 11:56 → STL 14:17UA 2042 8h 01m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → MCI 08:56 → DEN 10:07UA 1384 3h 18m Denver DEN 13:25 → STL 16:33UA 1639 7h 37m 100% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON