Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 160 at 08:21 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 160 MCO 08:21 → ALB 11:16 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2919 MCO 17:01 → ALB 20:01 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 160 Southwest	MCO 08:21	ALB 11:16	9%	3%	6.3%	no record
WN 1397 Southwest	MCO 19:56	ALB 22:51	28%	8%	2.5%	no record
B6 2919 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:01	ALB 20:01	34%	15%	5.5%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON