Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 20 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1548 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–40%.

Safest bet that day DL 1548 MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 4025 MCO 17:24 → ATL 19:25 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1548 Delta Flight history →	MCO 05:30	ATL 07:03	6%	2%	9.0%	95%
WN 2668 Southwest	MCO 08:51	ATL 10:33	10%	2%	6.7%	no record
DL 2080 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:05	ATL 08:43	10%	3%	7.3%	90%
DL 2204 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:05	ATL 11:44	12%	3%	5.5%	89%
DL 1463 Delta Flight history →	MCO 08:05	ATL 09:42	12%	3%	6.9%	90%
DL 1505 Delta Flight history →	MCO 09:05	ATL 10:45	13%	4%	6.9%	88%
DL 1213 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:05	ATL 12:43	16%	4%	5.6%	84%
DL 664 Delta Flight history →	MCO 13:05	ATL 14:44	18%	5%	13.1%	82%
DL 1658 Delta Flight history →	MCO 12:05	ATL 13:45	18%	4%	9.0%	81%
DL 1030 Delta Flight history →	MCO 14:05	ATL 15:55	20%	5%	11.5%	75%
DL 1576 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:41	ATL 17:17	21%	5%	4.8%	72%
DL 1372 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:40	ATL 17:30	22%	6%	5.4%	67%
F9 1241 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 10:00	ATL 11:46	23%	8%	6.3%	67%
DL 1742 Delta Flight history →	MCO 18:52	ATL 20:54	25%	9%	2.9%	55%
WN 988 Southwest	MCO 15:21	ATL 16:58	26%	5%	5.0%	no record
DL 1497 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:52	ATL 21:33	27%	10%	2.7%	67%
DL 1150 Delta Flight history →	MCO 17:45	ATL 19:46	28%	10%	5.5%	60%
WN 1148 Southwest	MCO 20:11	ATL 21:53	30%	9%	4.2%	no record
F9 3507 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 12:51	ATL 14:52	31%	10%	7.8%	70%
F9 4025 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 17:24	ATL 19:25	40%	14%	8.3%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON